This Week in Brief
Bitcoin is telling two stories at once this week. On July 1 it touched $57,800, its lowest level in 21 months, before staging a sharp 5.36% bounce to $61,689 as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled inflation risks have eased and June's jobs report came in weak. Underneath that price action sits the most consequential structural story of the year: Strategy overhauled its entire capital framework and authorized the sale of up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin. Bitwise says this is a bottom signal, not a crisis. Meanwhile Metaplanet quietly bought its way to 43,000 BTC, on chain data shows more Bitcoin underwater than in profit for the first time this cycle, and Robinhood launched its own blockchain.
Top Stories
CORPORATE TREASURY
Strategy Overhauls Its Capital Framework, Authorizes a $1.25 Billion Bitcoin Sale. Bitwise Calls It a Bottom Signal.
Strategy filed a June 29 disclosure authorizing the sale of up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to bolster cash reserves and fund preferred dividends. The move followed its mNAV falling below 1 on June 27 and its STRC preferred stock dropping to $74. Strategy let STRC float and raised its dividend to 12% starting July 1. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan called the selloff a classic "end of cycle" deleveraging event, noting Strategy holds $49.6B in Bitcoin and $2.6B cash against $6.8B debt, enough to cover 28 years of dividends if it liquidated today.
Why it matters: Hougan expects a new Bitcoin bull market to begin this fall. This is a liquidity mechanics problem, not a solvency crisis.
ETF FLOWS
Worst ETF Outflow Month Ever at $4.5 Billion. Metaplanet Quietly Buys Its Way to 43,000 BTC in the Same Stretch.
June closed as the worst month for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since launch, with $4.5 billion in net outflows. Cumulative outflows since May 6 have reached roughly $8.95 billion. While institutions fled the ETF wrapper, Japanese firm Metaplanet added 2,823 BTC for $170.7 million this week, lifting its treasury to 43,000 BTC worth approximately $2.6 billion and making it the third largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world.
Why it matters: ETF holders and corporate treasuries are behaving in almost opposite ways at the same price levels. That divergence tells you where the real long term conviction sits.
MACRO
Warsh Says Inflation Risks Have Come Down. A Weak Jobs Report Follows. Bitcoin Rips Back Above $61,000.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the ECB's Sintra forum on July 1 that inflation risks have come down, his first dovish comment since June's hawkish dot plot. June's jobs report added fuel: only 57,000 jobs added, well below expectations with downward revisions to prior months. Bitcoin surged nearly 5% in 24 hours, reclaiming $61,000, while Solana led the rally with a roughly 16% weekly gain.
Why it matters: The market prices a 70% probability the Fed holds rates steady at its July 28 to 29 meeting. Watch whether this bounce has legs into the rest of July.
ON CHAIN
More Bitcoin Is Now Underwater Than in Profit for the First Time This Cycle. Citi Cuts Its Target to $82,000.
Glassnode data shows 10.5 million Bitcoin are currently held at a loss, the first time more coins are underwater than in profit this cycle, a crossover that has historically coincided with major bottoms. Citigroup cut its 12 month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000 on July 1, citing the ETF outflow trend. The RSI sits in neutral territory around 43 to 44 rather than deeply oversold.
Why it matters: The on chain data leans bullish on a contrarian read, but the technical indicators have not confirmed a reversal yet.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Robinhood Launches Its Own Blockchain. Tokenized Stocks Go Live in 120 Countries.
Robinhood launched the public mainnet of Robinhood Chain on July 1, an Ethereum Layer 2 built on Arbitrum for tokenized real world assets and DeFi. Stock Tokens are now live in more than 120 countries, and Robinhood Earn offers an estimated 7% APY on USDG through the Morpho protocol. Day one partners include Alchemy, BitGo, and Chainlink.
Why it matters: A mainstream, publicly traded financial platform building and operating its own blockchain is the clearest signal yet of where tokenization is headed.
📊 Market Snapshot · July 3, 2026
BTC 21-month low (July 1)$57,800
BTC bounce to July 3$61,689
Cumulative BTC ETF outflows since May 6$8.95B
Strategy authorized Bitcoin sale$1.25B
Metaplanet total treasury43,000 BTC
BTC held at a loss (Glassnode)10.5M coins
👀 Assets to Watch
₿ Bitcoin (BTC) · ~$61,689
The 21-month low followed by a sharp bounce is a classic capitulation zone signature. Glassnode's supply-in-loss crossover leans bullish on a contrarian read, but RSI at 43 to 44 has not confirmed reversal, and Citi just cut its target to $82,000. Watch Friday's jobs data and whether Strategy executes its sale authorization. Core hold.
◆ Solana (SOL)
Up roughly 16% this week, the clear leader of the Warsh driven bounce. Liquidations have flipped from mostly longs to mostly shorts after weeks of long side pain, a meaningful shift. Momentum position, worth confirming this holds past the current short covering.
📅 Key Dates
JULY 4Senator Lummis expects final CLARITY Act text released for public review.
JULY 13Senate returns from recess with a compressed pre-August window for the CLARITY Act.
JULY 14 & 17House Financial Services Committee hearings in New York. July 17 covers the CLARITY Act.
JULY 28-29Next FOMC meeting. Market prices a 70% probability of a hold.
💬 The Snider Take
Brad Snider · Snider and Sons Consulting Group
I want to give real weight to the Bitwise argument on Strategy. Holding $49.6 billion in Bitcoin against $6.8 billion in debt, with enough capacity to cover 28 years of preferred dividends if it liquidated everything today, is not a company in crisis. It is a company whose stock stopped trading at a premium, which mechanically slows its ability to raise cheap capital. Those are two very different problems, and the market has been treating them as the same one.
The divergence between ETF outflows and Metaplanet's accumulation is the story I keep returning to. Worst ETF outflow month in the product's history, at the same time a Japanese company quietly became the third largest corporate Bitcoin holder on the planet. When the vehicle designed for easy access is bleeding and the vehicle requiring genuine conviction is still buying, that tells you where the real long term belief sits.
Supply in loss crossing over is one of the more reliable contrarian signals I track, and it has called bottoms before. But an RSI in neutral territory, combined with Citi cutting its target by 27%, tells me professional consensus has not caught up to the capitulation thesis yet. Watch Friday's jobs number closely.
🤝 Work With Brad
I help registered investment advisors and asset managers understand, evaluate, and present digital assets to their clients. Eight years of hands-on crypto experience. Zero jargon. No credential theater.
Start with a free 30-minute discovery call. No pitch. No pressure. sniderandsons.com · 440-749-5336
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always verify data from primary sources before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Copyright 2026 Snider and Sons Consulting Group.
